This paper investigates the short-term dynamics for public debts in the US and the UK over more than four decades. We check for structural changes in the data and assess nonlinearity and switching-regime hypotheses using several linearity tests. Our findings point to multiple structural breaks...

In this note, we examine the size and power properties and the break date estimation accuracy of the Lee and Strazicich (LS, 2003) two break endogenous unit root test, based on two different break date selection methods: minimising the test statistic and minimising the sum of squared residuals...

To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a...

Structural breaks in relationships between macroeconomic and financial time series are likely a result of financial crises or local reforms. If such structural breaks exist, cointegration tests have to take them into account. Arai and Kurozumi (2007), Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sanso (2006) and...

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent...

Aim/purpose - In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic...

The development of the methods of correlation and regression analysis at the turn of the 20th century, led to their use in attempting to identify relationships between economic variables. However, caution was soon expressed that correlating series with ‘secular’ trends was likely to be...