This article attempts to compare conclusions made about market contagion based on the periods indicated by using the Markov-switching model and based on a range for unconditional correlations as well as on arbitrary arrangements. DCC-model was used to control for correlation change over time....

In the article dating method for the four phases of economic activity is presented. Comparison of probabilities of recession occurrence in Poland based on the Hamilton switching model and the logit model was conducted in the empirical research. The study shows the convergence of indications...