Since Adam Smith, most economists have held the belief that trade fosters economic growth, although it has not been possible to establish a strong causal relationship. The results of growth regressions are, at best, mixed, and several historical studies have found a positive relationship between...

Like the rest of the poor periphery, Mexico had to deal with de-industrialization forces between 1750 and 1913, those critical 150 years when the economic gap between the industrial core and the primary-product-producing periphery widened to such huge dimensions. Yet, from independence to...

Muhammad Ali, who ruled Egypt between 1805 and 1849, intervened in Egyptian markets in an attempt to foster industrialization, especially between 1812 and 1840. Like a modern marketing board, the state purchased agricultural commodities (cotton, wheat) at low prices and sold them on world...

Oil price behavior has changed dramatically in the last twenty years. These changes can be explained rather simply in terms of the delayed responses of supply and demand to prices, and in terms of changes in the rate of discovery of reserves. This analysis can be used to forecast possible future...

This constant-market-shares (CMS) analysis shows the development of competitiveness, market and product structure of the Austrian merchandise exports from 1990 to 2006. The traditional CMS application was transformed to a dynamic model, such that the static indicators have been replaced by time...

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, wie sich Angebots-, Nachfrage- und geldpolitische Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten auf Deutschland übertragen. Dabei wird ein so genanntes factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) auf einen neu zusammengestellten Datensatz mit mehr als 200...

This constant-market-shares (CMS) analysis shows the development of competitiveness, market and product structure of the Austrian merchandise exports from 1990 to 2006. The traditional CMS application was transformed to a dynamic model, such that the static indicators have been replaced by time...

The objective of this paper is to estimate transformation and Armington substitution elasticities for South African trade. We use linear methods to estimate elasticities without growth factors. We then employ a non-linear system of equations to estimate Armington import elasticities and related...

What is the impact of the removal of barriers to trade on the firms' innovative activities? Does the increase in competition arising from trade reforms lead to increases in innovation? This paper attempts to examine the link between trade liberalization and innovation using firm panel data on...

Policy commitment and credibility are important for inducing agents to make costly, irreversible investments. Policy uncertainty can delay investment and reduce the response to policy change. I provide theoretical and novel quantitative evidence for these effects by focusing on trade policy, a...