In the past year, climate change has moved from political controversy to political consensus; at least, in relation for price-based policies the need to limit emissions. Uncertainties remain but with both major parties proposing to develop an emissions trading regime, it is timely to highlight...

We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, in which an elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to the addition of an `elementary bet' that increases consumption by a fixed amount in (relatively) `good' states and decreases consumption by a fixed (and possibly...

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of...

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of...

Most settled parts of Australia, notably including the Murray-Darling Basin, experience low and highly variable rainfall levels. Both medium-term cycles such as the Southern Oscillation and longer term climate change contribute uncertainty in additional to that arising from seasonal...

The precautionary principle has been proposed as a basis making decisions about environmental health under conditions of uncertainty, but remains controversial. This paper shows how the precautionary principle may be interpreted as a guide to decision making in complex systems characterised by...

The idea that preferences may be state-dependent fits naturally with an analysis of uncertainty based on explicit representation of random variables as state-contingent consumption or production bundles. In this paper we show how these concepts of risk-aversion may be extended to the case of...

The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. The object of the present paper is to show how the linear and non-linear programming models commonly used in modelling problems such as those arising in the Murray–Darling Basin may be adapted to incorporate a...

The central claim of this paper is that the state-contingent approach provides the best way to think about all problems in the economics of uncertainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal–agent relationships. This claim is illustrated by recent...