There is concern that prices in a market for Green Certificates (GCs) primarily based on volatile wind power will fluctuate excessively, leading to corresponding volatility of electricity prices. Applying a rational expectations simulation model of competitive storage and speculation of GCs the...

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to events, that is, to sets of possible outcomes. In this paper we introduce an axiom of consistency by which we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory to...

This paper investigates Romer's (1990) hypothesis linking uncertainty caused by the October 1929 crash with durable expenditure movements and the start of the downturn. The author estimates conditional variances for macroeconomic data, and computes the variance of stock returns. These goods are...

Capacities (monotone, non-additive set functions) have been suggested to describe situations of uncertainty. We examine the question of how to define the product of two independent capacities. In particular, for the product of two belief functions (totally monotone capacities), there is a unique...

In this paper we contribute to the study of how democracy works when politicians are better informed than the electorate about conditions relevant for policy choice. We do so by setting up and analyzing a game theoretic model of electoral competition. An important feature of the model is that...

von Neumann Morgenstern utility is generalized to von Neumann Morgenstern preferences. The proof is an application of simple hyperplane theorems.