In this article, we present one of the first real-world empirical applications of state-contingent production theory. Our state-contingent behavioral model allows us to analyze production under both inefficiency and uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. Using...

We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, in which an elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to the addition of an `elementary bet' that increases consumption by a fixed amount in (relatively) `good' states and decreases consumption by a fixed (and possibly...

The paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore...

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of...

In the past year, climate change has moved from political controversy to political consensus; at least, in relation for price-based policies the need to limit emissions. Uncertainties remain but with both major parties proposing to develop an emissions trading regime, it is timely to highlight...

We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, in which an elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to the addition of an `elementary bet' that increases consumption by a fixed amount in (relatively) `good' states and decreases consumption by a fixed (and possibly...

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of...

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of...

Most settled parts of Australia, notably including the Murray-Darling Basin, experience low and highly variable rainfall levels. Both medium-term cycles such as the Southern Oscillation and longer term climate change contribute uncertainty in additional to that arising from seasonal...

The precautionary principle has been proposed as a basis making decisions about environmental health under conditions of uncertainty, but remains controversial. This paper shows how the precautionary principle may be interpreted as a guide to decision making in complex systems characterised by...