forecasted using probability under conditions of uncertainty. …

In this article, we proposed the introduction in literature of a new source of uncertainty in modeling and forecasting … not been done yet. The inadequacy of indicators as a supplementary source of uncertainty generates a lower degree of … models of order 2 are the most accurate, being followed by the forecasts based on the predictions of active civil population …

countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by … forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3-month interest rates for a broad set of … allowing for cross-country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are …

revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving … policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be mitigated if data revisions were predictable, this paper sets out to … paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past …

revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving … policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be mitigated if data revisions were predictable, this paper sets out to … paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past …

increases strengthen these currencies to different extents. In contrast, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and associated oil …