Importance of risk and uncertainty in present period of dynamic changes grows. The article deals with risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making. First the concepts of risk and uncertainty and possibilities of their measurement are discussed. Further shortcomings of strategic decision...

A decision maker, named Alice, wants to know if an expert has significant information about payoff-relevant probabilities of future events. The expert, named Bob, either knows this probability almost perfectly or knows nothing about it. Hence, both Alice and the uninformed expert face...

There is a general agreement that (a) climate change is one of the most serious environmental problems, that (b) the analysis of climate change is confronted with a large degree of uncertainty and (c) that these uncertainties need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy...

I analyse firms organisational choices when they face uncertainty about institutional conditions in foreign locations with heterogeneous final good producers and incomplete contracts. As firms learn about the conditions abroad, the increasing offshoring activity increases competition in the...

We analyse firms' sourcing decisions under institutional uncertainty in foreign countries. Firms can reduce their uncertainty by observing offshoring firms' behaviour. The model characterises a sequential offshoring equilibrium path, led by the most productive firms in the market. With multiple...

In the seminal rational inattention model of Matĕjka and McKay (2015), logit demand arises from the discrete choice of agents who are uncertain about choice payoffs and who have access to a flexible, costly information acquisition technology (RI-logit). A notable limitation of this powerful...

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...

The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy...

We investigate how college students form and update their beliefs about future earnings using a unique information experiment. We provide college students true information about the population distribution of earnings and observe how this information causes respondents to update their beliefs...

Pestizide ermöglichen der Landwirtschaft gesteigerte Erträge, sie bergen jedoch auch Risiken für die menschliche Gesundheit und die Umwelt. Um diese Risiken zu begrenzen, müssen sie in einem Risikobewertungsverfahren ihre Sicherheit nachweisen, bevor sie zugelassen werden können. Die...