In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we...

We focus on four previous systemic financial crises that the United States has experienced since 1870. These include the crisis of 1873 (called the Great Depression until the 1930s), the 1893 crisis, the panic of 1907, and the Great Depression. Given that all of the earlier crises predate the...

The global scope and depth of the 2007-2009 crisis is unprecedented in the post World War II period. As such, the most relevant comparison benchmark is the Great Depression, or the Great Contraction as dubbed by Friedman and Schwartz (1963). We highlight some of the similarities between these...

Financial crises are historically associated with the “4 deadly D’s”: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues dragged down, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debt piles up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries, the...

The Portuguese National Action Plan for Employment (NAP) is the main instrument for the labour market policy. It was adopted in 1998. The NAP transposes to the Portuguese reality the contents of such guidelines, with the adequate adjustments required by the national specificities, establishing...

In this paper we present a model designed to relate the detailed occupational and industrial demands imposed on the economy by several types of water resource investment. This detail provides the basis for adjusting the market cost of such public investments under the employment conditions...

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...

Agell and Lundborg (1995, Economica) have accommodated the fair wage hypothesis (FWH) in an otherwise 2×2 Hechscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model for examining the robustness of certain standard trade theorems. The present paper proposes to introduce the FWH in a three sector general equilibrium model...

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such...

The steps in this paper are: (1) to recall the S = I relation and its position in macro-economics, (2) to observe how this equation is very relevant again with the renewed relunctance of banks to finance investments, (3) to point out that consumer durables are investments too, (4) to highlight...