This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn...

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of labor force participation in determining the...

This paper compares models used to explain OECD unemployment. The models suggest that the ?natural rate of unemployment? has been driven up mainly by wage push factors. Panel data on twenty-two OECD countries are used to investigate the explanatory power of these models over the past two...

This paper compares models used to explain OECD unemployment. The models suggest that the “natural rate of unemployment” has been driven up mainly by wage push factors. Panel data on twenty-two OECD countries are used to investigate the explanatory power of these models over the past two...

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little...

This paper compares the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Western Germany using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment in either country, and there is mild evidence that...

This paper compares the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Western Germany using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment in either country, and there is mild evidence that...

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little...

This paper adds two-sided ex-ante heterogeneity and a production technology inducingsorting to the canonical Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) search and matchingmodel. Ex-ante heterogeneity and sorting have important implications for the dynamicproperties of the model. The modifications solve...

We analyze changes in unemployment, marginal labor force attachment and participation in Canada and the U.S.. Using two complementary decompositions, we show the importance for the comparative evolution of aggregate unemployment of changes in the fraction of the non-employed who are unemployed...