This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and...

This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and...

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other...

We propose an unobserved components model with stochastic volatility and structural shocks to explore the relevant factors that influence trend inflation in the USA. Using structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy, we find that four structural shocks have...

We propose an unobserved components model with stochastic volatility and structural shocks to explore the relevant factors that influence trend inflation in the USA. Using structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy, we find that four structural shocks have...