This paper examines the changing relationships between the G-7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In...

We test for a change in the volatility of 214 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1959-1999. We find that about 80% of these series have experienced a break in unconditional volatility during this period. Even though more than half of the series experienced a break in conditional mean,...

This paper develops a model that examines the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on trend growth. It is assume that the provision of potentially productive public goods and services is financed by money creation (seignorage). Uncertainty derives from stochastic fluctuations in money supply....

We test for a change in the volatility of 215 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1960-1996. We find that about 90% of these series have experienced a break in volatility during this period. This result is robust to controlling for instability in the mean and business cycle...

Volatility breaks are tested and documented for 19 important monthly macroeconomic time series across the G7 countries. Across all conditional mean specifications considered, including both linear and nonlinear models with and without a structural break, volatility breaks are found to be...

This paper presents a simple stochastic growth model in which productivity improvements are the result of both internal (deliberate) and external (serendipitous) learning behaviour. The model is used to illustrate how these different mechanisms of endogenous technological change can lead to...