Two types of statistical models are empirically applied to test the pattern of volatility in the exchange rate markets. One considers the autoregressive models and tests the random walk hypothesis. The other considers the conditional variance process and tests the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics....

We measure the return to capital directly from the NIPA and BEA data and examine the return implications of the real business cycle model. We construct a quarterly time series of the after-tax return to business capital. Its volatility is considerably smaller than that of S&P 500 returns. The...

The exchange rate literature contains two inconsistent strands. There is a large theoretical and empirical literature on overshooting. In that literature overshooting is an important explanation for exchange rate volatility. A separate literature says that exchange rates are martingales and that...