At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level-k thinking, a form of bounded rationality introduced by García-Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2017), consistent with...

At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level-k thinking, a form of bounded rationality introduced by García-Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2017), consistent with...

We develop an incomplete-markets heterogeneous agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model in which households are allowed to lend and borrow, subject to a borrowing constraint. We show that, in this framework, forward guidance, that is the promise by the central bank to lower future interest rates, can be...

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest in linearised sticky price model. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment....

We show that interest rate rules that feed back on the growth rates of target variables (such as output or asset prices) may induce recessions in the presence of a zero lower bound, through purely self-fulfilling dynamics. This pathology is illustrated in a small New Keynesian model with...

Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple test for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be inflationary. We pursue this simple...