Analysts' earnings forecasts are not perfectly correlated with actual earnings. One statistical consequence is that the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts are usually too optimistic and too pessimistic. The forecasts' accuracy can be improved by shrinking them towards the mean....

This paper presents a dynamic feedback model of the technology diffusion process in which each firm's technology adoption decisions maximize the net present value of its anticipated cash flow, taking into account the direct cost savings, the number of linked firms expected to adopt complementary...