Summary We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct. 1989 - Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard...

We investigate the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the JPY/USD market using panel data from Consensus Economics. We find that past exchange-rate volatility increases forecast dispersion, while foreign exchange intervention of the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampens expectation...

This article investigates whether there exists a consensus among foreign exchange rate forecasters. The data set under consideration is the semi-annual survey of the Wall Street Journal . In most of all cases we find evidence in favor of a consensus. However, in a few cases, no-consensus is...