We develop an 11-variable structural VAR for the Australian economy over the period 1980 to 1998. The VAR methodology has only relatively recently been applied in the Australian context, despite its popularity in quantitative macroeconomics internationally. Our model includes an overseas sector...

<link rid="b1">Dungey and Pagan (2000)</link> present a SVAR model of the Australian economy which models macroeconomic outcomes as transitory deviations from a deterministic trend. In this paper we extend that model in two directions. First, we relate it to an emerging literature on Dynamic Stochastic General...

This paper considers the existence of a path of GDP corresponding to steady inflation in the prices of domestic goods. We estimate the steady inflation rate of growth, denoted the SIRG, at a little over 4 per cent p.a. in the post-float period in Australia. Changes in inflation are modelled as a...

This paper examines the empirical literature on financial market contagion in Asia during the 1997-98 financial crises with respect to existing tests of contagion. Empirical evidence shows that contagion affects both developed and emerging markets and does not seem to vary with the relative...

The second half of August 1998 was dominated by two events. From 14 to 28 August, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in Hong Kong equity markets to prevent a speculative double play against their currency board. On 17 August, Russia announced its default on sovereign bonds. This...

A factor analysis of long-term bond spreads is performed by decomposing international interest rate spreads into national and global factors. The factors are latent, and are assumed to have GARCH-type specifications as well as exhibiting serial dependence. An indirect estimator is used to...

During the East Asian currency crisis of 1997-98 the potential transmission of the crisis to developed markets such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand, was of considerable policy concern. Potential channels consist of anticipated movements stemming from common factors, spillovers and contagion....

This article provides empirical evidence on the effects of Chinese resource demand on the resource-rich natural resource supplier using the example of Australia. A structural VAR model is used to examine the effects of Chinese resource demand, commodity prices and foreign output on the...