The business cycle accounting "wedge" methodology is used to identify the mechanisms driving the rapid growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan since 1966. Analysis with a neoclassical growth model reveals that growth in these economies has been sustained by different mechanisms...

The evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between...

Is capital more complementary to one of the genders? More specifically, which types of capital are complementary to which gender? This paper presents a first attempt at estimating capital-gender complementarities, at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. By employing a panel of 12 OECD...

In this paper, we estimate a GVAR model in order to study the transmission of shocks between the EU15 and the USA economies, respectively, on a quarterly basis in the 2000 (Q1)–2011 (Q4) time span. Our work is based on the global variables of trade and credit which act as the transmission...

This article analyses the business cycles observed in the euro area and in the United States on the basis of the estimated results of a general equilibrium model. In the first place it is shown that the cyclical movements in both economies show strong similarities : there are no significant...

The financial crisis and the Great Recession to which it gave rise exposed the deep flaws in standard macro-economic models, and in the way those models were deployed. In this paper, based on a talk given to the Turkish Economic Association in November 2012, Joseph E. Stiglitz discusses the...

We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...

We investigate the effects of predictable changes in TFP at the sectoral level. Our findings can reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings in the literature. Shocks to predictable changes in investment-sector TFP are also found important for US business cycle fluctuations.

This paper extends the eductive learning approach in settings with non-atomistic agents. It shows the connection between the characterization of rationalizable sets by Basu (1991) and the seminal result by Guesnerie (1992) in the context of Cournot oligopoly models.