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This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty’s motives and incentives. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709265
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011791634
The picture fuzzy set (PFS) is a powerful tool to collect and handle large amounts of uncertain assess information in a new light. In this study, we explore some distance measures for the PFSs and propose Picture fuzzy ordered weighted distance measure and Picture fuzzy hybrid weighted distance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014462033
The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010313788
This contribution focuses on the concept of bounded rationality, highlighting the role of psychology in the economic decisions. The work analyzes Simon's approach and his notion of bounded rationality as procedural rationality. Moreover, it examines some major contributions of behavioral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898027
When risk averse forecasters are presented with risk neutral proper scoring rules, they report probabilities whose ratios are shaded towards 1. If elicited probabilities are used as inputs to decision-making, naive elicitors may violate first-order stochastic dominance.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041554
This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852697
This paper develops a weighted additive model for certainty equivalents of binary gambles with a segregation form, in the sense that they are decomposition into sure gains and risky gambles. The effect of adding a sure gain to the preference for a risky gamble is considered to be evaluated by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010688373
Mathematical algorithms often fail to identify in time when the international financial crises occur although, as the classical theory of choice would suggest, the economic agents are rational and the markets are or should be efficient and behave also rationally. This contribution tries to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010698859
Analytics has a similar agenda as management science and is working with the same industrial and business context to support managerial planning, problem solving and decision making. Analytics has a broader scope in terms of methods – besides models and algorithms it also works with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010635625