Staiger, Douglas; Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - In: Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (1997) 1, pp. 33-49
This paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the NAIRU and the role of the NAIRU and unemployment in forecasting inflation. The authors find that, although there is a clear empirical Phillips relation, the NAIRU is imprecisely estimated, forecasts of inflation are insensitive...
