After-hours pricing in foreign equity markets of multiple-listed U.S. securities appeared to be efficient in predicting New York prices in the weeks immediately following the October 1987 crash, but relatively uninformative in succeeding months. By contrast, daily changes in New York prices...

The following tables show the results of the probit analysis for the Senate and the House. A table including results for different combinations of the independent variables is included in an unpublished appendix available from the authors upon request. The results of the probit analysis for the...

In an environment of low inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the possibility that it may not have provided enough monetary stimulus even though it had pushed the short-term nominal interest rate to its lower bound of zero. Assuming the nominal Treasury-bill rate had been lowered to zero, this...

Briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are used to estimate changes in the design of US monetary policy and in the implied policy target for inflation from 1970 through 1997. Both estimated policy rate responses and FOMC transcripts are consistent with...

Under bond rate transmission of monetary policy, standard restrictions on policy responses to obtain determinate inflation need not apply. In periods of passive policy, bond rates may exhibit stable responses to inflation if future policy is anticipated to be active, or if time-varying term...