This paper looks at policy dilemmas the National Bank of Romania has faced over the years, with the analysis framed in a European and historical context. Some of these dilemmas are of an older vintage, such as how to deal with massive capital flows, how to combat high inflation when resource...

Traditional approaches to separate the underlying trend of potential output from cyclical developments mostly rely on the concept of nonaccelerating inflation output and are thus unable to detect upswings caused by the financial cycle, which often appear to be unsustainable in the long run. In...

In this paper, we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough...

The current financial crisis has once again shown that the inherent pro-cyclicality of lending can trigger financial cycles with a potentially substantial impact on the real economy. Against that background, the article analyses the size and dynamics of the debt ratios of the various...

The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for the Latvian financial stress index (FSI). To this effect, the particular methodologies widely used in international practice for composite indicators applied in financial stability monitoring and the experience of selected countries...

We examine the possible interactions of the financial cycle and fiscal position for G7 economies. We employ the innovative aggregate financial and fiscal stress indexes which are able to depict the perplexed nature of modern economies. A SVAR model is developed to investigate the effects of both...

We examine the time-frequency lead-lag relationships and the degree of integration between the US financial stress index and global commodity prices (i.e., oil, gold, silver, and cocoa) with data covering over 47 decades (January 1975 to December 2021). For this purpose, we resort to the bi- and...

This paper develops a tractable macroeconomic model with a banking sector in which banks face endogenous borrowing constraints. There is no uncertainty about economic fundamentals. Banking bubbles can emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism. Changes in household confidence can cause...