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Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich seit Mitte des Jahres 2018 merklich abgekühlt. Der langjährige Aufschwung ist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997122
The exposure of the argentine banking system to real interest rate changes is material and discourages long term credit. Quantification of this risk would help to manage it and may promote new credit, although it is not an easy job, especially in emerging markets. This paper proposes a Value at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849647
association with recessions and financial crises. We find that the DSR prior to economic slumps is related to the size of the … subsequent output losses. Moreover, the DSR provides a very accurate early warning signal of impending systemic banking crises at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010571371
This paper reviews the quantitative methods developed at selected authorities for stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank-specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Authorities with a mandate for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008632957
Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede banking crises. Could the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005187727
Our opinion is that the so-called sub-prime mortgage crisis has been a structural crisis of the US's financial capitalism. In analysing the complex combination of factors that led to those events, we try not to focus on the most contingent aspects but to clarify the underlying structure that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014363226
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003839314
This study aims to make out-of-sample forecasts of recessions using the data of Turkey between 1986-2010. Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010840087
-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict recessions. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005037627
In this paper, we analyze the role bank capital played in systemic banking crises and in lending expansion and … narrative identification of banking crises in Spain. Afterwards, we run a proper econometric test to analyze bank capital levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545573