This paper focuses on mean reversion on international stock markets and explores whether this empirical observation is compatible with a rational, general equilibrium asset pricing model. We consider a simple time series model with switching regimes for the consumption process in the G-7...

We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the...

This paper takes a deeper look at the measurement of the consumption–wealth ratio and analyzes its ability to capture variations in expected future stock returns. I find evidence of stock return predictability by taking a different approach than predictive regressions.

Este artículo presenta una revisión de la relación entre la prima por riesgo ex post del mercado accionario y los ciclos económicos observados en Colombia recurriendo a la metodología Hodrick-Prescott. Con información trimestral desde el cuarto trimestre de 2001 al tercer trimestre de...

ABSTRACT This article investigates the relationship between ex-post Equity Risk Premium (ERP) on the Colombian stock market and the economic cycles observed in the country using methodologies based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters. Accordingly, a short-term econometric model is put...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

We report results from a laboratory experiment exploring the extent to which individuals can solve a deterministic, intertemporal lifecycle consumption optimization problem and the effect of revealing social information on past average consumption amounts; as all individuals have identical...

The data in Fehr and Tyran (FT, 2001) and Luba Petersen and Abel Winn (PW,2013) show that money illusion plays an important role in nominal price adjustment after a fully anticipated negative monetary shock. Money Illusion affects subjects' expectations, and causes pronounced nominal inertia...