This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky-information forecast...

We consider a class of infinite-horizon dynamic Markov economic models in which the parameters of utility function, production function, and transition equations change over time. In such models, the optimal value and decision functions are time-inhomogeneous: they depend not only on state but...

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and labor supply in the UK economy using time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility for the period Q2 1987 to Q2 2017. It considers fiscal variables such as government expenditure...

The present paper has two main objectives: first, to accurately estimate commodity price uncertainty; and second to analyze the uncertainty connectedness among commodity markets and the macroeconomic uncertainty, using the time-varying vector-autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. We use eight main...

Using a unique database, this paper examines the interconnection among stress indicators of the Spanish financial markets during the period of January 1999 to April 2021, applying both the connectedness framework and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive connectedness approach. Our...

This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.

An expected utility model that includes output price and yield uncertainty was used to estimate cotton, corn, and soybean acreage response equations for the Southeast. The model appeared to fit the soybean and corn data well, resulting in own-price elasticity estimates of 0.317 for corn and...

The U.S. paper industry has become increasingly concentrated and therefore been suspected of imperfect competition. In this study, the new empirical industrial organization approach is employed to measure the degree of oligopoly and oligopsony power in the U.S. paper industry simultaneously. The...