An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement … between the groups on various important components of judgement suggested that the groups obtained their similar overall …

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement … between the groups on various important components of judgement suggested that the groups obtained their similar overall …

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper … predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time … beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits …

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person …