This study aims at performing an econometric analysis of the credit expansion process and social welfare from a comparative perspective, with a focus on eight developing and advanced economies from Central and South-Eastern Europe (including the case of Romania). The author aims to better...

Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in...

In this paper, we built a general equilibrium model in order to analyze how the prices and allocations are changed by the government consumption which is financed with debt. It is shown the period in with the government spending the employment and output increase. However, in subsequent periods...

This paper provides a fundamental study of China's consumption and output fluctuations. The most recent literature reports that, in the post-1978 period, detrended consumption is significantly more volatile than detrended output in China. This indicates the inability to impose consumption...

This paper studies the economic fluctuations of an open economy such as the French economy. A system of variables containing output, price level, trade balance, real exchange rate and oil prices is analyzed by applying the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology initiated by Sims...

Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general...

The impact of economic fluctuations on the total unemployment rate is widely studied, however, with respect to age- and gender-specific unemployment, this relationship is not so well examined. We apply the gap version of Okun's law, aiming to estimate youth unemployment rate sensitivity to...

In this paper we introduce weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model in order to examine the role of institutions as a source of economic fluctuations in emerging markets. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes...

Countries with more developed financial sectors experience smaller fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. However, the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining...