Showing 1 - 10 of 11,591
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784969
We study the informational role of prices in a stochastic environment. We provide a closed-form solution of the monopoly problem when the price imperfectly signals quality to the uninformed buyers. We then study the effect of noise on output, market price, information flows, and expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729770
We derive optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational expectations:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048583
this paper we consider both forecasting and optimization decisions in an experimental cobweb economy. We report results … optimization problem), (3) they do both and (4) they are paired in teams and one member is assigned the forecasting role while the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048645
general classes of steady states within this framework: those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish, and those … heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly and do not exhibit identical performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010679090
forecasting rules which generate perfect foresight orbits are approximated by cubic spline functions. These approximations are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005596637
We provide conditions for local stability and instability of an equilibrium point in certain systems of nonautonomous nonstochastic difference equations. In the systems under study the influence of time is present through a positive scalar "gain" parameter which converges in the limit to zero....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005371114
are assumed to underparameterize their forecasting models. A Misspecification Equilibrium arises when beliefs are optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069600
This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
DSGE models. In a BLE, boundedly rational agents use simple, but optimal AR(1) forecasting rules whose parameters are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496533