This paper introduces the Geographic Macro and Regional (GMR) model for NUTS-2 regions of the Euro zone. This model consists of three blocks: the TFP, the SCGE and the MACRO blocks. The model is built for impact analysis of policies targeting intangible assets in the forms of R&D, human capital...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

In this paper we propose a new small area estimation methodology aimed at the estimation of Value Added, Labor Cost and related competitiveness indicators for subsets of the population of Italian small and medium sized manufacturing firms classified according to geographical region, industrial...

Traffic congestion contributes to longer travel times and increased travel time variability. We account for the dynamic nature of travellers' choices, by deriving a closed-form solution for the costs of travel time variability. The resulting travel delay cost function is linear in the mean...

Likelihood functions of spatial autoregressive models with normal but heteroskedastic disturbances have been already derived [Anselin (1988, ch.6)]. But there is no implementation for maximum likelihood estimation of these likelihood functions in general (heteroskedastic disturbances) cases....

It is well known that the conventional CUSUM test suffers from low power and large detection delay. We therefore propose two alternative detector statistics. The backward CUSUM detector sequentially cumulates the recursive residuals in reverse chronological order, whereas the stacked backward...

This paper describes some of the features of a new dynamic general equilibrium framework (RHOMOLO) being developed at the European Commission (JRC-IPTS, together with DG REGIO) for evaluating EU Cohesion Policy. The design of the model reflects the objectives of Cohesion Policy, and a broader...