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has been on tests of the “expectations theory.” According to the theory, changes in the slope of the yield curve should … slope of the current yield curve. The expectations theory suggests that variation in the slope of the yield curve should be … prediction of the theory is supported by the data. A surprising finding is that parts of the yield curve have been useful in …
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1 Abstract -- 2 Introduction -- 3 Chapter I: Literature on the subject of excess volatility -- 4 Chapter II: Excess volatility beyond discount rates -- 5 Chapter III: Evidence of excess volatility in the Eurozone market -- 6 Conclusions.
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Asymmetric information between the central bank and bond markets creates an inference problem that affects the behaviour of long interest rates. This paper employs a simple macroeconomic model with a time-varying infation target to illustrate the implications of asymmetry for the sensitivity of...
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Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
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