The strength of decision routines was manipulated within a computer controlled micro-world simulation which required that participants make recurrent acquisition and disposal decisions. One week after having learned weak or strong routines, participants were confronted with changes in this...

Computer simulations and two experiments are reported to delineate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive...

[...from the chapter] In the present article, we delineate a different approach, which is by no means inconsistent, but largely overlaps with the aforementioned definitions. However, our approach is simpler and refrains from a number of rather strong assumptions to which other conceptions...

[...from the chapter] The probabilistic mind has to mirror the structure of the probabilistic world. Because the mind reflects the environment, the topic of the present volume should not be misunderstood as referring only to intrapsychic processes within individual organisms' brains or minds....

Fiedler and Freytag (2004) proposed an alternative pathway to contingency assessment in terms of pseudocontingencies (PCs). PCs reflect the utilization of base-rate information in the formation of contingency judgments. Here, we introduce an instantiation of the phenomenon based on the mere...

Predicting criterion events based on probabilistic predictor events, humans often lend excessive weight to predictor event information and insufficient weight to criterion event base-rates. Using the matching-to-sample paradigm established in studies on experience-based contingency learning in...

Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated when some meaningful relation exists between the condition and the low-baserate event. While traditional explanations assume that human judgments are generally insensitive to statistical baserates, more recent evidence shows...