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The results of China’s recent census, which showed a continued slowing in population growth triggered much discussion … of the implications for China’s economic growth potential and knock-on implications for debt sustainability. Demographic … sets in, risks for debt sustainability. However, China has numerous margins along which to make adjustments to compensate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297262
This paper considers how increasing longevity and declining birth rates affect market entry and endogenous productivity growth in a two-country model of trade. In each country, the demographic transition to an older population induces a contraction in the labor force through a decline in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404477
We assess the impact of population structure on economic growth. Following recent research, we focus on the generational turnover as a key driver of consumption growth. We characterize the impact of the average birth and death rates on the generational turnover, depending on the age-profile of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477584
We assess the impact of population structure on economic growth. Following recent research, we focus on the generational turnover as a key driver of consumption growth. We characterize the impact of the average birth and death rates on the generational turnover, depending on the age-profile of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480940
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001504637
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003049996
In the second half of the 20th century, most industrialized countries experienced declining fertility, rising life expectancy and a slowdown of population growth. Standard models of R&D‐based growth predict that a decline in population growth reduces economic growth. We argue that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014119554
Deficits, levels of debt, and demographics are deeply interrelated. Demographics have a major impact on GDP growth as well as on investment returns. The long-term headwind that can be expected in the 21st century compared with the demographic dividend (i.e., tailwind) of the 20th century has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963539
We explore how demographic changes in the Asia and Pacific region are likely to influence economic growth and other features of the regional economy. While many low-income countries in the region will continue to experience a demographic dividend, over time population aging could drag on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112107