Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

The study is to assess the relationships among the foreign exchange market, money market, and stock market in Ghana extending from January 2000 to March 2015, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework and error correction methodology. The results indicate that there is a long-run...