This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

In the data mining and machine learning fields, forecasting the direction of price change can be generally formulated as a supervised classfii cation. This paper attempts to predict the direction of daily changes of the Nasdaq Composite Index (NCI) and of the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite...

We examine whether finance professionals deviate from Bayes’ theorem on the processing of nondiagnostic information when forecasting quarterly earnings. Using field data from sell-side financial analysts and employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that analysts whose forecasts...

Eine Methode, um das systematische und unsystematische Risiko sowie den Einfluss externer Einflussfaktoren auf Aktienrenditen zu bestimmen, ist die Zerlegung der Varianz von Aktienrenditen. Allerdings waren die bisher angewendeten Methoden der Varianzzerlegung nur unzureichend dazu geeignet,...