This paper reports simulation experiments, applying the cross entropy method suchas the importance sampling algorithm for efficient estimation of rare event probabilities in Markovian reliability systems. The method is compared to various failurebiasing schemes that have been proved to give...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <Stochastic Models</I> (2012). Volume 28(3), pages 478-502.<P> We apply the splitting method to three well-known counting problems, namely 3-SAT, random graphs with prescribed degrees, and binary contingency tables. We present an enhanced version of the splitting method...</p></stochastic>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <A href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8239378&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S026996481000032X">'Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences'</A>, 25(2), 157-69.<p>A version of the classical secretary problem is studied, in which one is interested in selecting one of the <I>b</I> best out of a group of <I>n</I> differently ranked persons who are...</i></i></p></a>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Annals of Operations Research </I> (2005). Volume 134, issue 1, pages 119-136.<P> This paper reports simulation experiments, applying the cross entropy method such as the importance sampling algorithm for efficient estimation of rare event...</p></i>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>European Journal of Operations Research</I> (2010), pages 1380-1397.<P> There are various importance sampling schemes to estimate rare event probabilities in Markovian systems such as Markovian reliability models and Jackson networks. In this work,...</p></i>

We develop a methodology for studying ''large deviations type'' questions. Our approach does not require that the large deviations principle holds, and is thus applicable to a larg class of systems. We study a system of queues with exponential servers, which share an arrival stream. Arrivals are...

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider...

In this paper we describe a Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) procedure for counting the number of vertex covers in general graphs. The performance of SIS depends heavily on how close the SIS proposal distribution is to a uniform one over a suitably restricted set. The proposed algorithm...