This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to …

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date Euro Area recessions and … recoveries in the past several decades. In the U.S. and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI …) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the …

, across a variety of simple forecasting models, the new approach offers substantial improvements. …

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of … official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who … shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators. …

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of … official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who … manufacturing output growth can provide more accurate early estimates of manufacturing output growth than traditional indicators. …

This work examines a recent study that used various forecasting methods and in particular the Delphi method, to … understand how the indicators were selected during the development of the prospective study. It can be concluded that the … indicators in the study were selected through discussion on existing knowledge (formal and informal) and the broad consensus of …

show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect di?erences across business cycle phases but …