This article examines a tradeoff between ex ante mitigation costs and ex post costs of response to a potential introduction of animal disease such as Foot and Mouth (FMD). In a simplified case study setting we examine the conditions for optimality of enhanced detection systems considering...

Outbreaks of infectious animal diseases can lead to substantial losses as evidenced by 2003 US BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) event with consequent loss of export markets, and the 2001 UK FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease) outbreak that has cost estimates in the billions. In this paper we...

In this paper, we examine conditional, forecast-based dynamic pest management in agricultural crop production given stochastic pest infestations and stochastic climate dynamics throughout the growing season. Using stochastic optimal control we show that correlation between forecast error for...

In this study, we formulate a stochastic dynamic framework for pest control over the growing season taking into account forecasts of weather conditions and pest infestation expectations. Using stochastic envelope theorem and stochastic comparative dynamics, we analytically show how the...

In this study, we formulate a stochastic dynamic framework for pest control over the growing season taking into account forecasts of weather conditions and pest infestation expectations. Using stochastic envelope theorem and stochastic comparative dynamics, we analytically show how the...

States in the arid U.S. West, where average annual precipitation is below 20 inches, have experienced ongoing water scarcity in part due to prolonged spells of drought. Most western states rely on the doctrine of prior appropriation based on the seniority of rights to allocate water across...