We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty - measured by stock market volatility - reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the...

This paper analyses two issues that were characteristic of the global growth processes of the 1980s and 1990s (i) an important diffusion process of a new general purpose technology (GPT) and (ii) a speed-up of catching-up of a sub-group of developing economies (South East Asia, later China and...

We study the role of productivity convergence and financial conditions in the recent growth experience of Hungary. We build a stochastic, small-open economy growth model with productivity convergence, capital accumulation and external borrowing. Using empirically identified processes for...

Benigno and Fornaro (2014) show that an episode of low interest rates may harm an economy. Low interest rates trigger a consumption boom, labor shifts away from the tradable sector, learning spillovers from foreign technology decline and so do domestic total factor productivity, consumption and...

Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multistage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, globalvalue-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries,...

Die Unternehmen investieren seit der globalen Wirtschaftskrise eher verhalten in neue Ausrüstungen in Deutschland. Der aus Maschinen und Geräte bestehende Kapitalstock stagniert bereits seit dem Jahr 2008. Das ist die längste Phase ohne einen Kapitalaufbau in diesem Bereich seit 1991. Eine...

The re-distribution of income from labour to capital, from workers to top-managers, and from low income households to the rich has been an important feature of financedominated capitalism since the early 1980s. After the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Recession in 2007-9, the recovery has...

In the recent decade, capital outows from emerging economies, in the form of a demandfor liquid assets, have played a key role in the context of global imbalances. In this paper,we model the demand for liquid assets by rms in a dynamic open-economy macroeconomicmodel. We nd that the implications...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...