The aim of this article is the study of complex structures which are behind the short-term predictability of stock returns series. In this regard, we employ a seasonal version of the Mackey-Glass-GARCH(p,q) model, initially proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (2003) and generalized by Kyrtsou (2005,...

Most recent empirical works that apply sophisticated statistical procedures such as a correlation-dimension method have shown that stock returns are highly complex. The estimated correlation dimension is high and there is little evidence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos. Taking the complex...

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing...

The aim of this article is the study of complex structures which are behind the short-term predictability of stock returns series. In this regard, we employ a seasonal version of the Mackey-Glass-GARCH(p,q) model, initially proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (2003) and generalized by Kyrtsou (2005,...

Recent empirical studies have shown that the chaotic behaviour and excess volatility of financial series are the result of interactions between heterogeneous investors. In our article, we propose verifying this hypothesis. Thus, we use the Chen, Lux, and Marchesi (2000) model to show that the...

The main objective of this paper is to employ a new dynamic model that combines the bivariate noisy Mackey–Glass recently proposed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W., 2006. Evi- dence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices. Journal of Macroeco- nomics...

This paper, investigates the effect war and terrorism, have on the covariance between oil prices and the indices of four major stock markets - the American S&P500 and the European DAX, CAC40 and FTSE100 - using nonlinear BEKK-GARCH type models. Findings reported herein indicate that the...