The objective of this paper is to examine causality and feedback relationships between primary commodity prices and US inflation. To this end, the bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass process recently developed by Kyrtsou and Labys (2006) has been applied to assess this relationship. Results obtained...

In this paper, we further analyse the rich dynamic properties of the noisy chaotic model developed by Kyrtsou (International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 2005) considering homoskedastic errors, in the aim to derive information about possible linkages between noisy chaotic dynamics and ARCH...

Recent empirical researches have examined the relationship between US short-term interest rates using linear as well nonlinear econometric tools. The main objective of this paper is to employ a new dynamic model that combines the bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass and the BEKK GARCH processes...

This paper attempts to investigate further the nonlinear feedback relationship found in Kyrtsou and Labys (2006) between US inflation (BLS CPI) and primary commodity price index (the BLS PPI component for all primary commodity series). Our goal is to disaggregate the above index to the...

CPI inflation is subject to structural changes and exogeneous shocks that can have a significant impact to its dynamic evolution. The observed interaction between the intrinsic side of inflation dynamics and the disturbances fuels a rich spectrum of behaviors. To accommodate the complex outcome...

This text provides a new approach to the subject, including a comprehensive survey of novel theoretical approaches, methods, and models used in macroeconomics and macroeconometrics. The book gives extensive insight into economic policy, incorporates a strong international perspective, and offers...

Intro -- PROGRESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS RESEARCH -- PROGRESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS RESEARCH -- LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA -- CONTENTS -- EDITORIAL INTRODUCTION -- Chapter 1: LEARNING AND CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY IN ASSET RETURNS -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. GARCH in...

L’influence de la spéculation sur les marchés des matières premières a été, depuis longtemps, au centre des débats entre chercheurs, en particulier celui de la nature complexe de la causalité entre les marchés. Nous étudions, dans cet article, la relation qui peut exister entre les...

In this article, we propose an innovative way for modelling oil bull seasonals taking into account seasonal speculations in oil markets. Since oil prices behave very seasonally during two periods of the year (summer and winter), we propose a modification of Mackey Glass equation by taking into...