This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The aim is to analyze its performance, and mitigate its pitfalls by incorporating conditional variance estimates, as generated by a GARCH model. Notably, this paper tests several...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a dynamic Value at Risk model and high frequency realized volatility models can improve the accuracy of 1-day ahead VaR forecasting beyond the performance of frequently used models. As such, this paper constructs 60 conditional volatility...

We use the term "ratio problem" to describe the omitted variable and measurement error bias that can arise when a ratio is the dependent variable in an economic model. First, we show how bias can arise from the omission of two classes of variables based on a ratio's denominator. As an example,...

This paper aims to provide a foundation for the notion of economic rate of return and investigate its relations with accounting rates of return. Introducing the notion of depreciation class (the set of depreciation schedules with the same aggregate book value) it is shown that the mean of the...

The classical approach to long term load forecasting is often limited to the use of load and weather information occurring with monthly or annual frequency. This low resolution, infrequent data can sometimes lead to inaccurate forecasts. Load forecasters often have a hard time explaining the...

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the...

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for positive valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multi-variate extension of such a model, by taking into...

In this paper we propose an improvement of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality. In the current implementation of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, a sample is compared with a normal distribution where the sample mean and the sample variance are used as parameters of the distribution. We propose...

Consider two non-negative integer-valued r.v.'s X,Y with X=Y. Suppose that the conditional distribution of Y|X is binomial with parameters (n,p), n=0,1,2,...; 0 < p < 1 and p independent of n. It is known, and can be checked easily, that under the above assumption the distribution of Y is Poisson with parameter λp, λ>0 (Poisson(λp)) if and only if (iff) X is Poisson (λ). This model has been extensively used in the literature under different names...</p>

From independence, size and composition of bovines in Tamil Nadu showed differential growth pattern. The total bovine population showed an increasing trend up to the early-Sixties and thereafter stagnant till the early Eighties. While the milch animal stock increased steadily, the work animals...