Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile regression applied to the tails, is of interest in many...

This study deals with the statistical methods of contagion-effects on emerging capital markets. After fitting probability distribution on the empirical data, and cross-market correlation sensibility test were used on time series (2002-2009) of Hungarian, Polish Russian and US government bond,...

In this paper we give a survey on some basic ideas related to random utility, extreme value theory and multinomial logit models. These ideas are well known within the field of spatial economics, but do not appear to be common knowledge to researchers in probability theory. The purpose of the...

Global supply chains have grown greatly in recent years. Terrorist events that disrupt such supply chains are very hard to assess but have been and are likely to take place occasionally. Given that such disruptions have potentials for creating enormous and difficult to assess economic losses,...

Tail risk refers to the shape of the left tail of the distribution of investment returns. Return distributions are traditionally described in terms of their first for moments: mean return, volatility, skewness and kurtosis. Attribution is a descriptive approach used in portfolio analysis to...

We propose a simple and yet robust measure of tail neutrality. By this measure, hedge funds are more sensitive to market risk when the market experiences a substantial decline. This is also true when we consider a number of distinct hedge fund styles. This source of risk is not diversifiable,...

Financial losses due to unanticipated movements of mortality rates (either catastrophic mortality risk or longevity risk) have become a major concern for pension annuities. To transfer these risks to the capital market, a new risk management tool - mortality-linked securities - has been...

Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as the value that minimises the distance between a vector...

Extreme value data with a high clump-at-zero occur in many domains. Moreover, it might happen that the observed data are either truncated below a given threshold and/or might not be reliable enough below that threshold because of the recording devices. These situations occur in particular with...