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Uncertainty shapes the trajectory of business cycles and remains a central research topic in Macroeconomics. When studying the impact of uncertainty on the economy, economists use different uncertainty measures. While all indicators approximate uncertainty along some certain dimension, none of...
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measurement in influencing economic decisions. They attempt to measure uncertainty by indexes of volatility of the stock market … although risk can be measured, uncertainty cannot be measured. Even though risk can be measured, a simple symmetric measure … attempt at "measuring" risk or (fundamental) uncertainty is flawed. …
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This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
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