Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese...

This paper presents a comparative analysis of three different economic studies that played major roles in the policy debate over the Compact. It draws an important distinction between before-after and counterfactual impact analysis and highlights constraining assumptions in models. Over time the...

The future institutional environment for the co-existence of genetically modified (GM) crops, conventional crops and organic crops in Europe combines measures of ex-ante regulation and ex-post liability rules. Against this background we ask the following two questions: How does ex-ante...

This paper presents a new partial-equilibrium, multi-market international model developed to analyze policies affecting peanut products markets. The model covers four goods (food-quality peanuts, crush-quality peanuts, peanut oil, and groundnut cake) in 13 countries/regions (Argentina, Canada,...

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone...

The government of Indonesia, like many governments in developing countries, has intervened in food markets to control an stabilize food prices. And recently, the government has had to reduce input and food subsidies due to an increasing fiscal deficit. The resulting food price increases have had...

The successful expansion of the U.S. crop insurance program has not eliminated ad hoc disaster assistance. An alternative currently being explored by members of Congress and others in preparation of the 2007 farm bill is to simply remove the "ad hoc" part of disaster assistance programs by...

The federal government currently runs two major price support programs in agriculture, the marketing loan and countercyclical payment (CCP) programs. While these programs are both targeted at providing producer price protection, they have different political and financial costs associated with...

This report's intent is to analyze the 2002 US "Farm Bill" to determine whether it is production and trade distorting, and how it will affect commodity markets as well as how it will affect Canadian agri-food. The objectives are to:· To explain the producer subsidy programs and how payments...

Recent developments in American agricultural and trade policy suggest that the US is backing away from its position as a staunch supporter of freer trade. In the long run, this action will weaken the competitive position of US agriculture and the other protected sectors of the US economy, as was...