From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate 97,000 in excess of previous trends. Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32,000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were...

It is amply documented that a value portfolio outperforms a growth portfolio over long spans in most markets worldwide. Less well known, however, is how this outperformance is achieved. Decomposing the total returns of these strategies, we find that (a) value portfolios enjoy higher dividend...

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...

In this paper, we show that the historically unmatched economic performance experienced by developed countries over the past 60 years was supported by temporary and abnormal demographic conditions: extraordinary growth in the working-age population supporting both a plunging roster of young...

Contrary to naïve expectations, we find that moderate rather than rock-bottom levels of inflation and real interest rates are associated with lofty valuation multiples. Moderate levels create a valuation “mountain,” which is evident not only in the U.S. stock market but in the stock markets...

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...

Value stocks outperform growth stocks. The academic literature provides two competing interpretations on what drives the value premium: exposure to risk factors or mispricing of securities. Existing empirical studies, which are largely based on U.S. data, have not conclusively rejected one...

This article presents two simple algorithms to calculate the portfolio weights for a risk parity strategy, where asset class covariance information is appropriately taken into consideration to achieve “true” equal risk contribution. Previous implementations of risk parity either used a...