Economic data are regularly revised, leading to a number of alternative vintages being available fo a given data series over a particular time period. This paper confronts this problem, building on the model validity and data accuracy tests of Hendry (1994) to develop the concept of model and...

Using Treasury forecasts of the growth in real total consumers' expenditure a number of issues in macroeconomic forecasting are addressed. By restricting attention to a single variable, a more detailed examination is provided than is otherwise possible, thus complementing more general studies....

Papers by Thomas (1989, 1992) have noted how the often recounted `stylised history' of the consumption function differs from the true sequence of events in its early history. Thomas notes many interesting applied studies and debates which the stylised history overlooks. To these can be added the...

The debate concerning the mean reverting nature of the consumption-income ratio is revisited. The existing literature is extended by allowing for the as yet unconsidered possibility of asymmetric mean reversion in a collection of OECD economies. Using specifically derived finite-sample critical...

In this paper three hypotheses concerning the cyclicality of U.S. consumers' expenditure are proposed. These hypotheses are based upon the distinction between expenditure on durable and non-durable goods. It is argued that durability will lead to increased cyclical sensitivity and that this...

Business cycle asymmetry is examined using annual observations on GDP for 22 economies over the period 1870 to 1994. The present paper extends recent research in a number of ways. First, a non-parametric testing procedure is adopted which is robust to outliers. Second, alternative methods of...