In this paper we consider several modified wild bootstrap methods that, additionally to heteroskedasticity, can take dependence into account. The modified wild bootstrap methods are shown to correctly replicate an invariance principle for multivariate time series that are characterized by...

In this paper we analyze Granger causality testing in a mixed-frequency VAR, originally proposed by Ghysels 2012, where the difference in sampling frequencies of the variables is large. In particular, we investigate whether past information on a low-frequency variable help in forecasting a...

Most panel data studies of the predictability of returns presume that the cross-sectional units are independent, an assumption that is not realistic. As a response to this, the current paper develops block bootstrap-based panel predictability tests that are valid under very general conditions....

This paper introduces the notion of nowcasting causality for mixed-frequency VARs as the mixed-frequency version of instantaneous causality. We analyze the relationship between nowcasting and Granger causality in the mixed-frequency VAR setting of Ghysels 2012 and illustrate that nowcasting...

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lüutkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen,Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...

Market risk management is one of the key factors to success in managing financial institutions. Underestimated risk can have desastrous consequences for individual companies and even whole economies, not least as could be seen during the recent crises. Overestimated risk, on the other side, may...

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...

This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not...

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the...