This paper delves into the asymmetries of the exchange rate pass-through on prices in the case of Venezuela, extending the analysis of Mendoza (2004) the prices of goods and services. The data used is monthly for the period 07/90 -12/04. We find that pass-through in services is less than...

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...

This chapter aims at assessing the long-run determinants and the short-run dynamics of inflation in each country belonging to the European Monetary Union (EMU). Our work complements the recent literature on this topic for the Euro Area as a whole. Detecting such determinants can be crucial in...

The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

Output gap is generally used in assessing both the inflationary pressures and the cyclical position of a nation’s economy. However, this variable is not observable and must be estimated. In this paper, we accomplish two tasks. First, we estimate the output gap for the United Arab Emirates...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of...

It can be shown that inflation expectations and associated forecast errors are characterized by a high degree of persistence. One reason may be that forecasters cannot directly observe the inflation target pursued by the central bank and, hence, face a complicated forecasting problem. In...