Value stocks outperform growth stocks. The academic literature provides two competing interpretations on what drives the value premium: exposure to risk factors or mispricing of securities. Existing empirical studies, which are largely based on U.S. data, have not conclusively rejected one...

This article presents two simple algorithms to calculate the portfolio weights for a risk parity strategy, where asset class covariance information is appropriately taken into consideration to achieve “true” equal risk contribution. Previous implementations of risk parity either used a...

It is amply documented that a value portfolio outperforms a growth portfolio over long spans in most markets worldwide. Less well known, however, is how this outperformance is achieved. Decomposing the total returns of these strategies, we find that (a) value portfolios enjoy higher dividend...

In this article, the authors conduct a horse race between representative risk parity portfolios and other asset allocation strategies, including equal weighting, minimum variance, mean–variance optimization, and the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. They find that the traditional risk...

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...

Term premiums, defined as the excess return of long-dated contracts over short-dated contracts, in commodity futures are strongly predictable, both in the time series and in the cross section, by roll yield spreads. Strategies that exploit this predictability show sizable Sharpe ratios and are...

In this paper, we show that the historically unmatched economic performance experienced by developed countries over the past 60 years was supported by temporary and abnormal demographic conditions: extraordinary growth in the working-age population supporting both a plunging roster of young...

Contrary to naïve expectations, we find that moderate rather than rock-bottom levels of inflation and real interest rates are associated with lofty valuation multiples. Moderate levels create a valuation “mountain,” which is evident not only in the U.S. stock market but in the stock markets...

We study momentum and mean-reversion strategies in commodity futures prices and their relationship to momentum and mean-reversion in commodity spot prices. We find that momentum performs well in futures markets, but not in spot markets, and that mean-reversion performs well in spot markets, but...

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...