This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …

the predictors. We compare the performance of the priors in density forecast of inflation allowing for constant and … generalized Phillip curve for three inflation-targeting countries and produced evidence of significant time-variation in most of … stochastic volatility in the model estimation. Evidence from the estimates of the log predictive density score shows that the …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …